“If you think energy prices are bad now, winter will be worse,” Alvaro Pereira, acting Chief Economist for the OECD told us by Zoom on November 21, the day before the Paris-based agency released its annual economic outlook. Pereira said the confluence of the war in Ukraine, Covid supply chain disruptions, and resulting inflation have created the worst energy shock since the 1970s. The crisis isn’t limited to energy, he added: there are likely to be shortages of food, labor, and lower wages in the coming year. Coupled with an increasing indebtedness — particularly in developing countries – this already tense situation, he admitted, could lead to political unrest. While the OECD outlook for 2023 was less than optimistic, Pereira predicted some improvement in 2024 as these negative factors begin to ease